Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 13.923563 15.901039 18.023872 20.467996 23.199978 26.155223 29.589372
2025-08-17 10.940710 13.622480 16.719525 20.543250 25.118629 30.398101 36.930330
2025-08-24 9.359011 12.323728 15.911794 20.541675 26.321664 33.260680 42.178649
2025-08-31 8.055791 11.163650 15.088190 20.356694 27.185981 35.674789 46.950863
2025-09-07 7.179745 10.400643 14.619700 20.478298 28.317914 38.350755 52.048930
2025-09-14 6.628535 9.992050 14.544417 21.057867 30.020565 41.785652 58.235236
2025-09-21 5.911050 9.264887 13.951209 20.853196 30.608475 43.727600 62.487933
2025-09-28 5.090036 8.298417 12.927339 19.944222 30.128243 44.153364 64.654978
2025-10-05 4.801033 8.089731 12.962867 20.528388 31.750543 47.508431 70.958182
2025-10-12 4.500881 7.830797 12.893955 20.936782 33.117721 50.540294 76.908869
2025-10-19 4.103228 7.377108 12.487793 20.797011 33.648012 52.371976 81.191799
2025-10-26 3.725486 6.918534 12.033627 20.540956 33.968937 53.886109 85.043426
2025-11-02 3.431696 6.580331 11.754282 20.552686 34.717747 56.094409 90.061147
2025-11-09 3.199580 6.327119 11.593145 20.739359 35.742886 58.756454 95.863830
2025-11-16 2.950631 6.018298 11.311017 20.698956 36.387332 60.840452 100.840033
2025-11-23 2.704065 5.689425 10.967162 20.526146 36.795848 62.558318 105.297664
2025-11-30 2.527929 5.475002 10.804112 20.643937 37.675750 65.036614 111.013719
2025-12-07 2.436376 5.414665 10.909400 21.229315 39.358472 68.852482 118.972691
2025-12-14 2.240256 5.128624 10.581248 21.022591 39.675357 70.457194 123.429761
2025-12-21 1.970290 4.665363 9.887161 20.107285 38.711306 69.905225 124.344913
2025-12-28 1.910219 4.633782 10.009614 20.695585 40.407655 73.831719 132.739979
2026-01-04 1.832653 4.557318 10.038385 21.106933 41.801716 77.291794 140.464874
2026-01-11 1.699482 4.346301 9.785717 20.966152 42.186707 79.039546 145.363679